Cycling Bicycle Helmet
An improvement in bicycle helmet technology, lowering the probability a cyclist dies in any given accident?
An improvement in bicycle helmet technology, lowering the probability a cyclist dies in any given accident, will lower the total number of cycling deaths per year. True or false. Explain
If there is a 2 in 10 chance that with current helmet technology you will die and 10 people buy the helmet, then, 2 people can be expected to die.
After the introducton of the new technology there is a 1 in 10 chance the cyclist will die. Once this occurs a few things can happen.
If same number of people buy the helmet, then, 1 person can be expected to die and the answer is TRUE.
If, since helmets are safer 20 people buy them because the safety is worth the disconfort of wearing one. Since 1 in 10 will be killed, 2 in 20 will be killed and the total number of deaths will remain the same and the answer is FALSE.
If you increase to 30 people buying helmets you can see the total number of deaths will increase and the answer is FALSE.
This is not even taking into account that each cyclist may behave more unsafely because their helmet is safer increasing the number of accidents.
Back to the original question, all variables held constant AND the number of accidents held constant, the number of deaths will decrease BUT in reality it cannot be determined.
I hope this makes sense.
A look at what is currently available on eBay
 Cycling Headwear BELL Bicycle Safety Helmet Size 8 US $3.95 
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